Bitcoin Price Expected to Peak in Mid-January, According to Research Firm

A recent analysis by K33 suggests that Bitcoin may reach a cycle peak in January. This prediction is grounded in historical data indicating a 318-day cycle for cryptocurrency prices. K33 describes the upcoming peak as "a natural area to reduce risk and realize profits for the short term." If past trends hold true, Bitcoin could achieve a new peak within weeks, presenting an opportunity for investors to secure gains.

Key Insights from K33's Analysis

• All-Time High Anticipation: K33 forecasts that Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is poised to hit an all-time high in mid-January, coinciding with the inauguration of Donald Trump.
• Cycle Timing: The firm notes that, on average, there are 318 days between the first peak in a crypto cycle and its last. The initial peak for the current cycle occurred on March 5, suggesting that the final peak may occur around January 17.
• Political Influence: This date aligns with Trump's inauguration on January 20. The incoming administration has been a catalyst for Bitcoin's year-end rally, promising a more crypto-friendly environment in Washington. Additionally, concepts like the Bitcoin national reserve have contributed to pushing the token's price past the six-digit mark for the first time.

Market Sentiment and Projections

K33 cautions that the current enthusiasm in the crypto market may be overly optimistic. According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, "It's highly likely that the market has delusional expectations for the pace of policy changes and will overprice the impact running into the inauguration." The firm anticipates that the current rally will peak in mid-January, advising investors to consider this as a strategic moment to reduce risk and realize profits.

K33 has utilized two different methodologies to project Bitcoin's price:

• Based on Historical Peaks: Bitcoin could reach $146,000.
• Based on Market Capitalization Growth: The price could soar to $212,500.

Potential Corrections Ahead

Adrian Zduńczyk, a chartered market technician, has advised caution, predicting that pullbacks may occur between late January and February, with corrections ranging from 15% to 30% before another bull run resumes.

Alternative Research Insights

In addition, research from CCData indicates a potential peak for Bitcoin next year, albeit on a different timeline. Historically, Bitcoin peaks 371 to 546 days after its most recent halving event, which last took place in April. This halving occurs every four years and reduces the supply of new tokens by half.

• Base Case Scenario: Bitcoin could peak at $155,000.
• Bull Case Scenario: If conditions align favorably, it could reach $195,000.